Severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas to middle Tennessee and Kentucky this afternoon into tonight. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. Heavy to excessive rainfall may produce areas of flooding today and tonight from central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley.
Seattle, WA
Center Weather Service Unit
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928 FXUS66 KSEW 021539 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion 博体育 Seattle WA 839 AM PDT Fri May 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Chances of showers return today as high pressure moves further inland and an upper level trough approaches the coast. Unsettled conditions will persist into Saturday, before high pressure builds back into the region on Sunday. Warm and dry conditions are expected through the first part of next week, before chances of showers return near midweek. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...The latest forecast remains on track with no updates this morning. The upper level ridge axis over the region will push further inland today as an upper level trough approaches the coast. At the surface, a weak frontal system will make its way across western Washington and will bring the next round of shower chances to the region. Rain will approach the coast this afternoon and then slowly make its way into the interior late tonight into early Saturday. Areas east of the Olympics will likely be rain shadowed initially as the system progresses inland. Overall rainfall amounts will remain rather light, with many spots only seeing a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch. Satellite imagery early this morning shows some low stratus starting to develop along the coast. Expect temperatures along the coast to cool today with highs only making it into the mid to upper 50s under increasing cloud cover. Southerly flow aloft and sun into the afternoon will allow for warmer temperatures across the interior, with highs expected to top out in the upper 60s to mid 70s. The upper level trough will move inland on Saturday, keeping conditions cool and unsettled for the start of the weekend. Increasing onshore flow in the wake of the frontal system will allow for some light convergence showers to persist across portions of the south and central Sound Saturday morning. However, expect showers to gradually become more confined to the mountains throughout the day. Afternoon high temperatures will cool to the mid 50s to low 60s for the majority of the area. The upper level trough will move to the east on Sunday as upper level ridging starts to build back into the region from the northeastern Pacific. This will mark the start of the next warming and drying trend for the area, with afternoon highs expected to warm a couple degrees from Saturday. Temperatures look to top out in the upper 50s for the coast and in the low to mid 60s across the interior. .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...Upper level ridging will remain the dominant influence across the region through the start of week, promoting warm and dry conditions across western Washington. High temperatures look to warm into the upper 60s and low 70s for the interior on Monday, with temperatures expected to warm a few degrees further on Tuesday. This would bring the return of Minor (Yellow) HeatRisk to portions of the interior lowlands. Areas along the coast will remain cooler, with highs generally expected to be in the low to mid 60s. Uncertainty remains in the pattern heading into midweek, with deterministic guidance hinting at the upper ridge pushing inland on Wednesday and for weak systems to begin moving into the area. Meanwhile, ensemble clusters look to hold onto the ridge a little longer and only show it pushing inland on Thursday. Will need to see how guidance continues to trend over the next few days, however have maintained the return of showers to the forecast on Wednesday for now. 14 && .AVIATION...An upper ridge axis will move into the Northern Rockies today with increasing south to southwest flow aloft over Western Washington ahead of an approaching upper trough and associated weak frontal system. Increasing low level onshore flow will lead to a developing marine layer producing IFR or low MVFR ceilings along the coast. Increasing high and mid level clouds are expected across the interior. Ceilings will lower to MVFR across interior areas overnight as shower activity spreads inland with the weak front. KSEA...VFR today with increasing high and mid level clouds after around 18Z. Ceilings will lower to MVFR toward 06Z tonight as a few showers spread across the area. Surface winds light southerly early becoming southwesterly this afternoon and increasing to 8 to 12 knots. 27 && .MARINE...A weakening frontal system will move onshore across Western Washington late this afternoon. Increasing onshore flow will develop in its wake. A strengthening surface ridge over the coastal and offshore waters with lower pressure east of the Cascades will lead to continuing onshore flow over the weekend. Onshore flow will relax somewhat early next week as the offshore ridge weakens. A weakening front will approach the waters toward the middle of next week. 27 && .HYDROLOGY...The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the start of the next rainy season; it will only be updated if needed. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 8 AM PDT Saturday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca- East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. && $$ 073 FXUS66 KPQR 021843 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED 博体育 Portland OR 1143 AM PDT Fri May 2 2025 Updated Aviation Discussion .SYNOPSIS...Dry and warm through much of the day with increasing clouds later today. A cold front front will bring increasing chances for rain showers later this afternoon into Saturday morning, with temperatures cooling back into the 60s on Saturday. Expect temperatures to rise again into early next week as high pressure returns to the region. Mostly dry conditions likely to persist through much of next week. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday...Water vapor satellite imagery this morning shows the upper level ridge over the Pacific Northwest drifting eastward. With the ridge axis now well east of the Cascades, southerly flow aloft will continue to increase ahead of an approaching upper level trough. Moisture will also increase across the region today while low level flow turns westerly, bringing increasing chances for rain showers later this afternoon into Saturday morning. Marine stratus has already pushed onto the coast, but skies inland will likely remain sunny this morning, then expect increasing clouds through the afternoon. Afternoon temperatures inland will likely warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s, with mostly dry weather expected through at least early this afternoon. The initial shortwave will push a cold front onshore later this afternoon with light rain likely for the coast. Daytime heating combined with orographic lift over the Cascades will bring a chance for showers there later this afternoon along with a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms along the Cascade crest through early this evening. The next shortwave rounding the upper trough will likely bring an uptick in shower activity, with more widespread rain showers likely overnight; albeit rather light accumulations are expected, except for portions of the Cascades and foothills where a tenth up to a half inch of rainfall is likely. Otherwise, those hoping for more substantial rain to water their gardens or grass will have to wait, potentially for awhile. Showers gradually dissipate Saturday morning, though may linger over the Cascades through the evening as the upper level trough moves over the region. With northwest onshore flow behind the cold front, expect cooler temperatures on Saturday in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Snow levels will actually drop to around 5000 ft on Saturday, with some snow possibly mixing in with the rain at the higher elevations, but little to no snow accumulations are expected for those driving over the passes. Will also need to watch overnight temperatures trends across some of the rural valleys into Sunday morning for potential frost concerns, especially where skies clear and winds become light. Latest NBM guidance suggests there is around a 10-20% chance for low temps to fall below 36 degrees across northern locations such as Hillsboro and Battle Ground, while probabilities are higher for portions of the southern and central Willamette Valley (25-45%) to potentially see early morning frost. Widespread sunny skies are likely to return by Sunday afternoon as high pressure begins to build back over the region, with afternoon high temps returning to near normals. /DH .LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday...Expect a return to warm and dry conditions early next week as there is good model and ensemble agreement of upper level ridging building over the Pacific Northwest. NBM guidance gives high confidence of afternoon high temperatures inland warming into the 70s on Monday and peaking in the 80s on Tuesday. By Wednesday, WPC cluster analysis shows southwest flow aloft over the region as the overall upper level pattern becomes more broad. Will maintain low chances of precip (15- 30%) towards the middle of next week as QPF clusters and ensembles show potential for light rainfall amounts, depending on how close the trough eventually gets to the PacNW. Although temperatures likely see a down-trend later next week, still likely to remain near to above normal. /DH && .AVIATION...Conditions over the area will diminish during the TAF period as a frontal system comes through. Coastal Airports...KONP is experiencing light rain that will decrease for a brief period of MVFR conditions at about 20-21z Friday. CIGS will lower at KAST at about 21z Friday and will be inconsistent between IFR and MVFR conditions, but gusts will persist up to 20kt. KONP will feel beginning affects of the frontal system at about 00z Saturday as CIGS lower back down to IFR conditions. Inland Airports...Skies will remain relatively clear in VFR conditions until the frontal system affects inland airports and lowers CIGS to about 2000-3000ft around 06z Saturday. There will be light and showery rain during the frontal passage for all airports but KPDX. KPDX will likely only experience precip within the vicinity, but not directly over the airport. Winds will continue northwesterly at 7-10kt until the end of the TAF period. CIGS will raise back up to VFR conditions by the end of the TAF (15-18z). PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions persist with winds increasing to 7-10kts as a frontal system moves in. As the front moves in, CIGS will lower to MVFR conditions from about 06z-12z Saturday. VFR conditions will then return to prior conditions with CIGS at about 45000ft and SCT clouds within 3000-4000ft. -Ruhl && .MARINE...High pressure will remain in place through the weekend, aside from late Friday and early Saturday morning when a weak cold front will move eastward over the coastal waters. This front will bring wind gusts up to 20 kt with seas around 7 to 9 ft, peaking Friday evening. Winds and seas then remain nearly steady through the weekend, aside from Sunday afternoon and evening when northerly winds will strengthen slightly with gusts up to 25 kt. The increasing north winds will be in response to a surface thermal trough that is set to develop along the south Oregon coast, helping to tighten the pressure gradient over the coastal waters, especially over the central and southern waters where the strongest gusts are expected. Expect a repeat of these conditions Monday afternoon and evening. -TK && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/博体育Portland x.com/博体育Portland 410 FXUS66 KMFR 021736 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion 博体育 Medford OR 1036 AM PDT Fri May 2 2025 ...Updated AVIATION discussion for 18Z TAFs... .DISCUSSION...The focus for efforts with this update were upon the probability and coverage of thunderstorms this afternoon/evening and Saturday afternoon/evening. Compared to 24 hours ago, the general model trend was for a very slight shift eastward in the region of highest instability, and also a very slight weakening of the strength of that instability. A blanket of stratus at the coast is the first obvious sign of a change in our weather. A chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms will develop this afternoon into this evening from southern Siskiyou County northward along the Cascades and eastward, in advance of a cold front. The main risk accompanying thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be strong downdraft winds with a dry lower level air mass below cloud bases. Widespread rain will accompany the front as it moves inland this evening into Saturday, then additional shower chances Saturday afternoon and evening that will include a slight chance of thunderstorms for Lake and Modoc counties. There will be gusty winds and much cooler temperatures this weekend. A new warming and drying trend begins on Sunday, with above normal temperatures inland likely through all of next week. As mentioned yesterday, the Sprague River near Beatty is elevated due to mountain snowmelt, but expected to stay under minor flood stage. Generally, despite the high probability of measureable rain in our area tonight into Saturday morning, not expecting many areas to receive over half an inch of rainfall. But, areas along and near the Cascades would have the best chance. Of course, if a thunderstorm maintains or trains over an area we could see higher convective rainfall rates. If this occurs upstream of the Sprague River, we may need to reevaluate the river forecast and response to increased rainfall. && .AVIATION...02/18Z TAFs...MVFR and IFR ceilings remain along the Oregon coast this morning, with periods of LIFR visibilities being observed at North Bend. An approaching front should bring more consistent MVFR ceilings along the coast, although North Bend does have periods of IFR ceilings forecast for this evening. MVFR ceilings will be possible for inland areas as well as the front moves eastward through the day. There are slight (10-20%) thunderstorm chances for areas east of the Cascades this afternoon and evening, with those chances returning to single digits by early Saturday morning. Showers will be capable of locally lowering ceilings and visibilities as well as obscuring elevated terrain wherever they occur. Areas west of the Cascades should start to see more stable conditions by Saturday afternoon, while showers look to continue east of the Cascades into the next TAF period. -TAD && MARINE...Updated 200 AM Friday, May 2, 2025...A seasonably strong cold front is expected this afternoon into this evening with seas becoming steep again in southern waters late tonight into Saturday. Seas and northerly winds will build during the weekend, with very steep seas likely and gales possible in southern waters late Saturday into Monday. Meantime, steep seas are likely to develop north of Cape Blanco on Sunday. Conditions are likely to begin to improve late Monday night, though with seas likely remaining steep through Tuesday evening. Further improvement is forecast for Wednesday. -DW && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ356-376. Hazardous Seas Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Sunday night for PZZ356-376. && $$ 411 FXUS66 KEKA 021310 CCA AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED 博体育 Eureka CA 610 AM PDT Fri May 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Isolated thunderstorms possible over northeast Trinity county this afternoon and evening. Chance of light rain expected tonight and Saturday. Strong and blustery northerly to northwesterly winds Saturday and Sunday. && .DISCUSSION...Upper ridge shifts eastward today in response to a trough just outside 130W early this morning. The trough has induced a deeper marine layer with extensive stratus clouds covering coastal areas and adjacent river valleys. Low cloud cover should erode with daytime heating and mixing, but will most likely reform and linger over the coast through the day. Interior temperatures will cool down some today, generally into the 70`s. A few thunderstorms will be possible over NE Trinity County late this afternoon. href and NBM indicates a 15-20% chance with CAPE over 500j/kg and lifted indices near -2C. Forcing is weak. Coarser resolution model soundings indicate more stability and less CAPE. HRRR and ARW composite reflectivity simulations indicate > 40dBZ cores developing with daytime heating. Main threat from these very short-lived diurnally triggered storms will be cloud-to-ground strikes. Approaching trough and surface front will induce a push of deeper humidity tonight. Light rain will be possible tonight as the shallow moist airmass behind the front intersects with the coastal terrain. Not very much rain is expected by 18Z Saturday, generally less than a tenth of an inch. Main impacts following the passage of this trough will be strong and gusty northerly winds on Saturday. NBM means has gusts up to 25-35 mph with windier areas around 40-45 mph. A few wind prone sites could gust to 50 mph Saturday afternoon/evening; over the King Range and around Pt St George and Cape Mendocino. Inland areas will also be quite blustery. Interior high temps will cool well below normal and may not even reach 65F on Saturday. Strong and gusty coastal northerlies expected to continue on Sunday (perhaps slightly stronger) as a strong surface ridge builds offshore while a surface low deepens over the SW interior. Gusts over 40 mph are highly probable for the coastal headlands and ridges. A 50-60kt 925mb speed max develops just offshore this weekend. BUFKIT soundings over land sites or along the land-ocean interface are around 35kt 1000-2000 ft AGL. NBM probabilities for gusts > 45 mph are less than 50% for most land areas. Exception will be over coastal headlands (Pt St George and Cape Mendo) and over the exposed ridges. It will remain windy and chilly even for inland areas on Sunday. A secondary low level speed max (35-40kt) will also form over the central valley Sunday into Monday. Robust N-NE winds are expected over the higher elevations, especially eastern Mendocino and eastern Lake Counties by early Monday. Peak gusts for the ridges and wind prone areas will probably reach or exceed 50 mph. Windy conditions expected to continue on Monday, but will most likely diminish for coastal areas as the air mass warms and stability increases. Frost and freezing temperatures will also be a distinct possibility early Sunday morning in the valleys of Trinity and northern Mendo if winds become calm and skies remain clear. Early morning frost in these same inland valleys will be possible again Monday morning. High temperatures in the interior will warm above seasonal averages on Monday and probably remain above average all next week. Average interior highs range from 68-76F for early May. Robust offshore flow will initially keep coastal stratus limited in coverage and duration or non-existent early next week. Upper ridge axis over the PAC NW is forecast to shift southward around mid week. Precip chances remain low (<10%) as the trough over the Gulf of Alaska digs southward over the central Pacific. Decaying front may result in a few hundredths of coastal drizzle and perhaps a few showers over the mountains mid to late week. Otherwise, dry weather to prevail all next weekend. DB && .AVIATION...Stratus impacts continue early this morning at the coastal terminals, while stratus is slowly advecting northward toward UKI and will likely be impactful before sunrise. Ceilings at CEC have remained MVFR, though they could drop to IFR by sunrise. ACV has seen mainly LIFR ceilings early this morning, which are likely to improve by the afternoon. Ceilings are forecast to lift to MVFR/VFR this afternoon, if not clear entirely, at the coastal terminals for a few hours this afternoon. Stratus and light rain or drizzle returns this evening and overnight. Any low clouds that reach UKI this morning will likely lift shortly after sunrise. Gusty northerly winds of 20-25 kts are possible this afternoon and early evening in UKI. JB && .MARINE...A weak front moving through early today will bring lighter southerly winds across the area, but northerlies are expected to ramp up again behind the front this evening into the weekend. Gale force gusts of 35 to 40 kts are possible even nearshore, with the strongest winds likely Saturday, Sunday, and Monday afternoons. These winds will bring very steep, chaotic seas of around 12-15 ft at 10 seconds. Winds begin to ease Tuesday, and continue to gradually ease into the middle of next week. JB && .BEACH HAZARDS...A northwest swell of around 5 ft at 18 seconds has filled in overnight, which has brought a high risk for sneaker waves given light winds and seas. A Beach Hazard Statement has been issued until 5 PM this afternoon. Be cautious visiting steep beaches and jetties today, and remember to never turn your back on the ocean. JB && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for CAZ101- 103-104-109. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ450-470. Gale Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 3 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ450-470. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ455-475. Gale Warning from 3 AM Saturday to 3 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ455-475. && $$ Visit us at /eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/博体育Eureka https://www.twitter.com/博体育Eureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: /images/eka/zonemap.png 084 FXUS66 KMTR 021802 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion 博体育 San Francisco CA 1102 AM PDT Fri May 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 323 AM PDT Fri May 2 2025 Cloudy this morning, with the potential for light drizzle along the coast and in the higher terrain. A front moves through today, which will mix out stratus, bring high clouds and increasing NW winds. Breezy northwest (onshore) winds are expected late Sat morning through early Sun morning, with offshore winds expected late Sun into Mon. && .UPDATE... Issued at 905 AM PDT Fri May 2 2025 The 12Z sounding found very dry air above the marine layer. At one point Mt. St. Helena was reporting the RH as low as 3%. If you were to go on an early morning hike you could park your wet car at a foggy trial head and literally walk into air drier than the Sahara Desert in a couple hours. This dry air is helping to erode the stratus from above in some areas, but the clearing is far from uniform. Our focus today is on strong winds along the coast this weekend, and we plan to issue a wind advisory on this shift with all the details. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 323 AM PDT Fri May 2 2025 Key Messages -Cloudy this morning, with patchy drizzle along the coast and perhaps in higher terrain. -Onshore winds increase late today and continue into weekend Upper level ridging gives way to an upper level trough today. At the surface, a cold front associated advances eastwards with the trough making its way over northern CA this evening. The marine layer and associated stratus should hold through mid morning, with patchy drizzle along the coast and in the higher terrain. Stratus will then begin to mix out for the majority of the area by the late morning hours. Then, with the approaching trough and cold front, high clouds will begin to filter in while winds begin increasing by the evening hours. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 323 AM PDT Fri May 2 2025 Key Messages - Gusty NW winds peaking Saturday afternoon/evening - Inland gusts 35-45 mph - Coastal gusts 45-50 mph - Very little rainfall Saturday AM - Elevated fire danger interior North Bay/East Bay Monday AM (dry, offshore wind) The key message from yesterday remain on point, thus no changes there. The cold front should be exiting our forecast area by Saturday morning. PoP/rain chances were obliterated by the NBM with this update, though some of the models still show the potential for light drizzle or perhaps even light rain (a couple hundredths of an inch or so) with the passage of the front. The main story with this system will be the increasing onshore (NW) winds on Saturday. Ensemble guidance, via the NAEFS and ECENS, and deterministic models are in agreement with gusty NW winds ramping up late Saturday morning, peaking during the afternoon and evening hours, and then winding down by Sunday morning. Guidance has the jet setting up right along our coast, which will support the stronger winds of 45- 50 mph, though if the guidance shows the slightly higher trends it could be isolated up to 55 mph. These winds should also be noted for gaps that are orientated from NW to SE (e.g. San Bruno Gap and the Salinas Valley). Elsewhere, inland gusts should range from 35-45 mph. The highest confidence for Saturday`s winds are along the coast. However, given the signal for the potentially stronger winds, I opted to not pull the trigger on a Wind Advisory since there was some flirting with High Wind Criteria for these areas. Confidence is lower for the inland valleys for a Wind Advisory, as winds may not be as widespread. As we head into Sunday, upper low digs all the way into southern CA with some models showing a closed low forming and advancing into the Desert Southwest. Broad troughing still reigns over much of the West Coast, with upper level ridging building over the eastern Pacific. Models show a second upper level disturbance embedded in this flow, which should bring us some offshore winds late Sunday into Monday for the North Bay and East Bay mountains. Conditions will be drier, but shouldn`t coincide with the peak winds at this time though some drying is to be expected from this event. After that, upper level ridging looks to hold through midweek. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1044 AM PDT Fri May 2 2025 The marine layer is eroding nicely this afternoon and the 18Z TAFs begin with most terminals in VFR conditions. These clear skies will persist for several hours before high clouds arrive this evening ahead of a cold front. The ceilings will drop to MVFR/IFR through the night, and there is a slight chance for rain. Outside of flight conditions, this front will usher in strong NW winds that will persist in the post-frontal environment through the weekend. Vicinity of SFO...SFO ceilings have been trying to clear this morning, but persistent moisture is keeping a steady stream of broken low clouds moving across the Peninsula. I`ve included a tempo line to show the uncertainty between scattered and broken ceilings through the middle of the day. High clouds will gradually lower through the night, with possible IFR ceilings Saturday morning. Strong NW winds will persist through the TAF period and beyond, with gusts likely reaching 35KT Saturday afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...The approach over the bay has been much more clear than departures over the peninsula, and that trend looks to continue for the next several hours. Monterey Bay Terminals...Low confidence ceiling forecast in the short term. The visible satellite is encouraging for Salinas over the next hour or 2, but MRY is another story. There are patches of clear sky, but a persistent stratus bank offshore is demonstrating that marine layer moisture is enough to support MVFR ceilings through the day before the cold front brings more widespread ceilings this evening. && .MARINE... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 905 AM PDT Fri May 2 2025 An approaching cold front will cause NNW winds to gradually increase to gale force by Saturday evening. These winds will persist through Sunday, building very rough seas. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Saturday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0- 10 nm. Gale Warning from 9 AM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay. Gale Warning from 9 AM Saturday to 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 9 AM Saturday to 9 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning from 9 AM Saturday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...Flynn MARINE...Flynn Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea 166 FXUS66 KOTX 021742 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion 博体育 Spokane WA 1042 AM PDT Fri May 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... -High temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above normal Friday. Minor HeatRisk. -Cooler temperatures, showers, and breezy winds Saturday and Sunday. -Temperatures trending warmer next week. && .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will remain warm and dry for today with a minor risk for heat-related illnesses for those extremely sensitive to heat. Cooler temperatures and showery conditions are anticipated for Saturday and Sunday. Windy conditions are expected through the Cascade gaps on Saturday and the Okanogan Valley on Sunday. Temperatures trend warmer through the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Saturday: Today will be the warmest day of the start of the weekend. Temperatures will climb into the upper 70s and low 80s as the effects of the continuing ridge. Some forecast ensembles are slightly cooler, suggesting highs in the upper 70s. Either way, temperatures will remain above normal. The ridge begins to breakdown late Friday afternoon with a incoming cold front pressing into the Cascades. It is a fairly dry system keeping precip amounts to a few hundredths over the Basin and a couple of tenths over the higher terrain through Saturday. Highs will be noticeable different though with a range of 60s to low 70s expected. Overnight lows will dip into the 30s and low 40s. Sunday through Friday: By Sunday, the Inland Northwest will be in a weak pressure pattern, supporting scattered mountain showers and breezy winds. Temperatures will rebound into the 70s and low 80s Monday through as another ridge builds. The ridge is expected to weaken by Wednesday evening as a low pressure system from the Gulf of Alaska approaches. The models are trending drier as the system is expecting to stall and weaken before moving through the Pacific Northwest. It is limiting the confidence in precip for the midweek. The system will usher in a cooler Southwest flow pattern allowing for highs to moderate back into the upper 60s and 70s. Overnight lows will continue to be in the upper 30s and 40s. /JDC && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: There is high confidence for VFR conditions through this afternoon with light winds. Winds will pick up out of the west at EAT after 03Z this evening as a cold front begins moving into the region. High cloud cover will increase into the evening and overnight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions. Several ongoing prescribed fires may result in some haze at times in the early morning. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for 博体育 Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 49 67 44 63 40 69 / 0 30 20 10 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 47 68 43 59 38 67 / 0 20 40 30 0 0 Pullman 46 62 40 57 36 66 / 0 30 40 20 0 0 Lewiston 52 70 47 62 43 71 / 0 30 50 20 0 0 Colville 44 68 40 64 35 72 / 10 50 40 20 0 0 Sandpoint 47 70 45 57 39 67 / 0 30 50 60 10 10 Kellogg 49 67 43 54 40 65 / 0 20 50 60 10 20 Moses Lake 52 68 41 70 43 76 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 54 65 42 67 43 76 / 30 10 0 0 0 0 Omak 52 70 41 68 40 76 / 30 40 10 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$ 809 FXUS66 KPDT 021809 AAA AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED 博体育 Pendleton OR 1109 AM PDT Fri May 2 2025 Updated aviation discussion .AVIATION...18Z TAFs...VFR conditions expected through mid afternoon when an incoming weather system will bring increasing mid levels clouds to all TAF sites through the course of the evening and overnight. It will also bring some isolated thunderstorms late in the afternoon and evening in central Oregon and the Oregon Cascade and Ochoco Mountains. Model guidance has a less than 10 percent chance of thunder at KRDM and KBDN, so did not include it in those TAFs, but a stray thunderstorm is possible 23Z-05Z. The front moving in will bring showers to KRDM, KBDN and KDLS after 00Z with showers possible through the rest of the period. Showers will also be possible at KYKM from 06Z-12Z and at KPSC, KALW and KPDT after 09Z. Have PROB30 to indicate MVFR conditions at KRDM and KBDN after 11Z, but do not expect anything worse than low end VFR conditions at other TAF sites. KDLS will have northwest winds of 15 to 25 kts gusting to 35 kts after 21Z though decreasing after 11Z. KRDM and KBDN will have northwest winds of 10 to 20 kts gusting to 25 kts 21Z-05Z. Other TAF sites will primarily remain under 12 kts with some higher gusts at times. Perry/83 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 AM PDT Fri May 2 2025/ SHORT TERM...today through Monday morning... Current radar and satellite depict dry and clear conditions for the entire CWA. This is thanks to the ridge a loft creating a blocking pattern for most convective and cloud formation. Over night temperatures are expected to dip to the upper 30s to lower 40s across much of the Basin, with higher elevations dropping to the mid 30s. Conditions will continue to be clear and dry through the overnight hours heading into Friday morning. Things will quickly change as the synoptic pattern veers away from ridging and more into a trough/shortwave setup. With that, the key messages for the remainder of the short term are as followed: 1) Thunderstorm chances increase for Central OR and parts of Wallowa. 2) Breezy to locally windy conditions across parts of the Gorge and Kittitas Valleys 3) River and hydro concerns headed through the week. A trough will emerge into the PacNW Friday afternoon, bringing SW flow aloft, allowing for moisture advection coupled with instability along the Cascades near Central OR to initiate isolated thunderstorms (15-25% chance). The trough will continue to push through the region going into Saturday, increasing PoP chances for light rain across the region. Highest QPF from this system will be located in parts of Central OR and the Wallowa`s. Total QPF around Central OR and the Wallowa`s will amount to around 0.20-0.30 inches (65-75% chance). QPF amounts for most parts of the Basin will drop to 0.05 to 0.15 inches while the Kittitas Valley/Ellensburg area will amount up to a tenth of an inch (50-70% confidence). Pressure gradients with the trough will tighten as the axis of the trough moves closer to the region, allowing wind gusts to increase up to 35 knots in the gaps of the mountains and the Kittitas Valleys. Strongest winds will occur in the mid-afternoon hours of Friday and ending during the early evening hours shortly after. Winds will pick up once more early evening on Saturday but are expected to be slightly weaker than what is expected on Friday. Temperatures will have one more day of warming trends Friday as the ridge will keep skies clear for most of the day, with highs going up to the mid to upper 80s in parts of the Basin. Parts of central OR and higher elevations in WA will reach into the low to mid 80s. Warming temperatures coupled with the precipitation expected later on Friday and Saturday will cause rivers at Cliffdell and Naches to reach above action stage. LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...Temperatures will rise over the course of next work week as the oncoming weekend low pressure system is replaced by transitory ridging, followed by warm SW flow aloft. This transitory pattern will create windy conditions for the Grande Ronde Valley on Monday, before quieter weather prevails for much of the rest of the week. Guidance generally depicts a dry flow pattern despite the SW origin, largely due to the weak strength of the winds aloft, resulting in warm air advection but very little moisture advection. As a result, expect high temps across the lowlands to return to widespread 80s after a cooldown over the weekend. If deterministic guidance is anything to go by, expect a return to rain chances by late next week into next weekend as SW flow aloft amplifies, stemming from a deep oncoming trough. Details are scant at this time, with ensemble clusters not really providing much help as many members keep a weak flow regime overhead through the period, with some even reintroducing ridging, but given persistent SW flow, should note that it does not take much to trigger at least a weak orographic shower across the eastern mountains or Cascades. For what it`s worth, the deterministic NBM does introduce slight chance PoPs (<20%) for the high mountains on Thursday, likely stemming from a slight shift southward of the most amplified band of SW flow aloft, but confidence remains low as much of the moisture still lies well to our north even in this scenario. Evans/74 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 85 53 63 42 / 0 20 60 20 ALW 84 55 63 45 / 0 10 60 30 PSC 88 56 70 44 / 0 20 30 10 YKM 86 54 68 41 / 0 30 10 0 HRI 87 56 67 44 / 0 30 40 10 ELN 83 54 61 39 / 10 40 10 0 RDM 82 43 56 30 / 20 50 60 0 LGD 80 48 60 39 / 0 10 60 50 GCD 84 48 60 37 / 0 40 80 40 DLS 82 53 64 42 / 0 40 20 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...95 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...83 032 FXUS65 KREV 020945 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion 博体育 Reno NV 245 AM PDT Fri May 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Today will be the warmest day heading into the weekend with high temperatures running 5-10 degrees above average. * A low pressure system will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms and gusty outflow winds this afternoon east of the Sierra crest. * Cooler temperatures, breezy winds, increased chances for showers and thunderstorms, and light rain/mountain snow showers will all be possible this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... A deepening upper level trough positioned off the CA coast will extend further south today before becoming cut off Saturday evening. This trough will give our area just enough forcing and instability, around 500-600 J/kg of SBCAPE, to produce a thin N-S oriented band of showers and thunderstorms along the Sierra Front this afternoon from Mono County up to northern Washoe County. Temperatures will reach as high as 78-82 in lower valleys, which will be enough surface heating for these storms to initiate. PWAT values today will increase to 0.60-0.70" but these showers will likely realize only a fraction of that, with QPF values forecasted up to 0.10". Inverted-V profiles will be the main theme today and tomorrow, as is typical for this time of year. The chance for lightning will be 20-30%, with small pea size hail possible in the strongest storms. Looking ahead to Saturday afternoon, the low pivots inland over SoCal, drawing up more moisture from the south. With the help of increased divergence aloft and widespread PWAT values over 0.60", we`ll see area-wide showers and thunderstorms form as early as 12PM and last all the way until 3-4AM Sunday morning (40-70% chance). Due to slightly cooler temperatures and increased shower intensity, there will be snow/graupel showers above 8000ft in Mono County with up to 3-5 inches of snow possible on the highest peaks. Be on the lookout for high elevation thundersnow as well! Snow will struggle to accumulate on Sierra passes and lower roads in Mono county but some slushy conditions aren`t out of the picture. QPF values are ranging from 0.20-0.60", with locally higher amounts of 0.80". We`ll have a little less SBCAPE Saturday (300-500 J/kg), as well as decreased chances for lightning (15-20%). DCAPE values are currently ranging from 700-1000 J/kg, indicating outflow gusts could reach up to 45 mph near these storms. Sunday, the low positions itself further east over Arizona, so our shower coverage will also shift east - just barely clipping eastern Pershing, Churchill, and Mineral counties. Lightning will still be a concern, around a 30% chance. Temperatures will bottom out on Sunday, with highs close to 60 in lower valleys and near 50 in the Sierra. We`ll have some breezy north winds Sunday morning through Sunday evening with gusts up to 20-25 mph. Monday through Thursday, high pressure will once again take over and we`ll quickly warm back up to around 80 degrees by Wednesday (70s in the Sierra). Among the CAMs and blended guidance, there are no indications of any gusty winds Monday through Thursday, so other than thunderstorms today through Sunday, it`s going to be dry and sunny with light winds this week! -Justin && .AVIATION... Showers and thunderstorms will be the main concern this afternoon for KRNO/KCXP/KMEV (25-30%), although KTRK/KTVL/KMMH may see a stray shower or two (15-20%). Showers will initiate around 22Z and move north throughout the afternoon before finally dissipating around 04Z. The strongest thunderstorms will be capable of brief downpours/MVFR conditions, gusty and erratic winds, small hail, and lightning. Otherwise, occasional rain showers may yield MVFR conditions and mountain obscuration into the early evening with breezy W winds this afternoon. We`ll have another round of showers and thunderstorms Saturday, with increased storm coverage. There will be a 40-70% chance of showers for all regional terminals with a 15-20% chance of lightning. -Justin && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$ 636 FXUS66 KSTO 012016 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion 博体育 Sacramento CA 116 PM PDT Thu May 1 2025 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .Discussion... .Synopsis... Minor weather impacts over the next 7 days. Gusty north winds on Sunday and Monday in the northern Sacramento Valley. Warm temperatures today, then cooling begins on Friday with the coolest day on Saturday. Light rain showers are expected Saturday with most areas receiving less than a tenth of an inch. As the system exits the area on Sunday and Monday...expect gusty winds up to 40 mph in the northern Sacramento Valley and gusts 25 mph most other locations. Dry and mild conditions are then expected into early next week. && .Key Messages... * Today: -Warm high temperatures, warmest in the northern and central Sacramento Valley -Probability of central and north Sac Valley temps 90 degrees or higher: 50-90% -Probability of southern Sac Valley temps 90 degrees or higher: 5-25% * Friday and Saturday: -Cooling trend starts with chances of showers in the mountains, foothills, and northern Sacramento Valley. -Light precipitation chances on both days with most areas seeing less than a tenth of an inch over 48 hours. * Sunday and Monday: -Mostly dry and gusty north winds -Warmer temperatures than Saturday. * Early Next Week: - Slightly warmer than normal temperatures and dry. .Changes from previous forecast... * Winds have trended up slightly for Sunday and Monday && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours across interior NorCal. Surface winds less than 12 knots at TAF sites through Friday morning. Breezy southerly wind gusts up to 15-20 kts across the Sacramento Valley, west to northwest gusts up to 20 kts over the northern San Joaquin Valley, and southwest gusts up to 20-25 kts over the Sierra 18z Friday - 06z Saturday. Over the Sierra, north to east winds will gust 15 to 25 kts from 05Z through 18Z Thursday. Southwesterly wind gusts up to 25 kts vicinity Delta. There is a 10-30% chance of isolated thunderstorms over the Sierra mainly from HWY 50 southward until 03z Friday, and over the mountains from 18z Friday - 03z Saturday, with brief periods of MVFR conditions. Gusty and erratic winds near thunderstorms. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 840 FXUS65 KMSO 021725 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion 博体育 Missoula MT 1125 AM MDT Fri May 2 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Hot, dry weather is expected through Saturday. - Cold front passage Saturday evening into Sunday, bringing showers and thunderstorms. - Cooler and wetter conditions Sunday and Monday, especially in western Montana. A ridge of high pressure will move over the Northern Rockies this afternoon through Saturday. Warm, dry, and mostly sunny skies are anticipated. The warmest temperatures of the year so far will occur, with many valleys of western Montana reaching 80 degrees, and lower valleys of north central Idaho approaching 90 degrees. Despite the warm air temperatures, those recreating in area rivers/creeks/lakes should remember that cold water can still pose a hypothermia risk. A cold front is anticipated to move through north central Idaho late Saturday afternoon, and then through western Montana Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Increasing clouds and shower activity are anticipated, with the potential for a few thunderstorms to develop both Saturday and Sunday afternoons. By Sunday, temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees cooler. In addition, breezy north to northwest winds will likely create choppy conditions on area lakes. Model ensembles are in strong agreement for a cut off low to develop over the Great Basin Sunday. This will lead to wrap around moisture within easterly flow into our region. This pattern typically favors precipitation along the divide and in southwest Montana. Guidance has trended higher with precipitation over the last 24 hours as a shortwave trough dropping southward from Canada will provide widespread lift, with east-northeast flow transporting moisture into western Montana. The latest precipitation forecasts call for 0.40-1.00 inches along the divide, with a 50 percent probability for 1.25" or more through the end of the day Monday. Along the US-93 corridor, 0.10-0.30 inches are expected, with between a 20-30 percent probability for up to 0.50". The highest precipitation totals will focus along the divide, where easterly upslope flow will enhance orographic precipitation. Finally, snow levels will lower to around 6000-6500 feet Sunday night into Monday morning, allowing for 2 to 4 inches of snow accumulations in the higher terrain, primarily along the divide. The majority of forecast models continue to indicate another period of warm and dry weather beginning mid-week next week as another ridge of high pressure builds over the region. There is potential for this to be a longer lived ridge than we have seen in recent weeks. The pattern also may become favorable for thunderstorm development, so stay tuned! && .AVIATION...VFR conditions under high pressure will continue into Saturday. Terrain driven winds will develop by late morning-early afternoon. Warmer temperatures will promote deeper mixing, leading to 10-15kt gusts after 02/2100Z. A cold front is still on track to move across north-central Idaho Saturday afternoon and western Montana in the evening and overnight hours. An increase in westerly winds are expected, along with scattered showers and thunderstorms along and just behind the front. KGPI, KMSO and KHRF will have the highest potential for possible nocturnal convection Saturday night. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$ 065 FXUS65 KBOI 021539 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion 博体育 Boise ID 939 AM MDT Fri May 2 2025 .DISCUSSION...Morning water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper high centered along the US/Canada border this morning. This is resulting in clear skies over the region and temperatures are in line to reach 10-15 degrees above normal this afternoon with most lower elevations well into the 70s and mountain valleys into the 60s. A deep low approaching the West Coast will support shower/thunderstorm development over s-central Oregon this afternoon, spreading into Harney and southern Malheur counties in the early evening. A more widespread threat of thunderstorms is still on tap for Saturday bringing the potential for gusty winds, locally heavy rain and hail. && .AVIATION...VFR. Clear skies until cloud shield moves into SE OR tonight. Isolated showers and thunderstorms this evening near KBNO. Surface winds: E-SE 5-15 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S 5-15 kt. KBOI...VFR. Clear skies. Surface winds: SE 7-13 kt. Weekend Outlook...Scattered showers Saturday morning across SE Oregon. Showers will become numerous late Saturday afternoon into the evening and spread into SW Idaho. Isolated thunderstorms will also develop and may contain gusty winds 30-50 kt, heavy rain, and small hail. MVFR to IFR conditions possible in thunderstorms. Mountains obscured. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue across mainly the higher terrain of SW Idaho on Sunday. Surface winds outside of storms: W to N 5-15 kt on Saturday, increasing to 10-20 kt with gusts 20-40 kt Saturday night and Sunday behind a cold front. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night...A strong upper level ridge remains over the area today. Temperatures will be in the low 80s across the Snake Basin and upper 60s to mid 70s across the mountains today, or around 10-15 degrees above normal. The ridge axis will slowly move east late this afternoon into Saturday and a cold front will approach the area from the west. Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across central Oregon, generally from Burns west. Showers continue across central and eastern OR into Saturday morning. By Saturday afternoon, showers remain over eastern OR, with much cooler temperatures, with warm conditions across southwest ID ahead of the cold front. As the cold front moves east showers and thunderstorms develop across southwest Idaho. The cooler air in central and eastern OR should accelerate as it moves across southwest Idaho. This will bring a gust front through southwest Idaho with gusts of 40 to 50 mph Saturday afternoon along the cold front. DCAPE values around 1000j/kg will also enhance gusts from showers and thunderstorms along the front. Scattered showers continue behind the cold front into Sunday afternoon, mainly across the Idaho zones. Snow levels fall to around 4000-6000` across eastern OR on Sunday morning, and around 7000-9000` over southwest ID. Sunday will be much cooler with temperatures falling around 15 degrees from Saturday. Breezy northwest winds follow the cold front and continue into Sunday afternoon. LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...The upper-level trough that made its way through the region over the weekend will continue to influence our weather as it slowly moves over the Rockies/Four Corners region. Northerly flow aloft will persist through Tuesday as a result. Precipitation chances (20-40%) persist in SW Idaho on Monday in the Western Magic Valley and Camas Prairie. Thunderstorm chance is low but mentionable in these areas. Winds will be strong during the majority of Monday, with gusts reaching from 30-45 mph. By Tuesday, precipitation chances become negligible as the region transitions from the upper-level trough moving east and an upper-level ridge forming over the Desert Southwest and Northern Rockies Wednesday and Thursday. High temps will reach low to mid 80s through the Snake Plain and mid 60s to low 70s in mountain valleys during Wed/Thu. This pattern will break down Friday, when a shortwave trough moves over, bringing with it another chance for precipitation and thunderstorm chances again. At this far out in the forecast, mentionable PoPs remain over higher terrain, however with dewpoints remaining in the higher 30s to lower 40s, shortwave trough timing is critical for these threats to maximize. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/博体育Boise www.x.com/博体育Boise DISCUSSION...DG AVIATION.....ST SHORT TERM...KA LONG TERM....CH 251 FXUS65 KLKN 020849 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion 博体育 Elko NV 149 AM PDT Fri May 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Mostly sunny and warmer today with highs in the 70s. Increasing clouds later this evening and overnight. Showers and thunderstorms impact much of the region on Saturday. Wettest areas on Saturday are expected to be eastern Humboldt, western Elko, Lander, and portions of NW Nye counties where a quarter to a half of in of rain is expected. Shower activity continues through the weekend with the higher rain amounts focused across central and eastern NV. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday. High pressure centers over the inter-mountain west today with mostly sunny skies over northern and central NV. Afternoon high temperatures today will range from upper 60s to upper 70s, which will be around 10 degrees above normal. Weak instability across portions of central NV, including NW Nye, S Lander and S Eureka Counties will result in some cumulus cloud build ups this afternoon, however not expecting (5% chance) any thunderstorms to develop. Trough energy approaching the west coast tonight will nudge the ridge over Nevada eastward. Clouds increase from west to east later this evening and overnight which will help keep the low temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal into early Saturday morning, with most locations only dropping into the low 40s. Ahead of the approaching trough, southerly winds will increase across central and northeastern NV later Saturday morning and through the afternoon and early evening hours. Strongest winds Saturday afternoon are expected across central NV, where sustained south winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts of 30 to 45 mph are expected. Mid-level moisture increases across western portions of the CWA Saturday morning, and across the entire CWA by late Saturday afternoon. Mid-level moisture in combination with increasing instability will result in scattered to numerous showers across most of the region Saturday afternoon, along with isolated to scattered thunderstorms. A slow moving boundary is expected to set up across north-central NV Saturday afternoon, with drier southerly flow pushing in through central NV meeting up with the wetter air mass which will be dropping in from the W-NW through Humboldt County, western Elko and northern Lander and Eureka Counties. Along the boundary between the air masses is where the bulk of the thunderstorm activity is expected on Saturday, though more isolated activity is still possible (10-20% chance) over nearly the entire CWA. The heavier rainfall amounts Saturday afternoon and evening are expected generally to the west and north of the line extending from Tonopah, NE through central Eureka County and up through Jarbidge. Those areas can expect between a tenth and a half inch of rain between 11AM and 11PM Saturday. Areas to the south and east of that line can expect between a trace and 0.15 inches of rain through Saturday evening. Locally heavier amounts are possible in any stronger thunderstorms. Lighter shower activity is expected to continue across the CWA Saturday night, though snow levels are expected to remain at or above 9000 feet. .LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday Widespread rain and scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected for Sunday as a large upper-level trough pushes ashore and moves east over the Silver State. Showers will continue on Monday an the low slowly shifts east and begins to exit Nevada. On Tuesday, a shortwave trough will dive south and merge with the low, bringing showers over eastern Nevada. Rainfall accumulations are forecast to be higher in higher elevations and areas south of I-80. Between 0.3-0.5 inches of rain is expected in lower elevations north of the interstate, and 0.5-0.8 inches of rain is forecast in valleys south of I-80. Light snow is forecast in the mountain ranges, but none is expected in lower elevations due to warm daytime temperatures. High pressure will start to build on Wednesday and remain in place through Friday morning. Temperatures will warm in the later part of the week, with highs reaching the upper 70s and lower 80s. On Friday afternoon, models are showing a weak low pressure system coming ashore and moving over Nevada. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop from this system, but the probability appears low. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected at all terminals over the next 24 hours. Winds will generally be from the S-SW at 5-10 kts at KWMC, KEKO, KELY, and KTPH, and from the N-NW at 5-10 kts at KBAM. Few to scattered clouds are expected to develop during the afternoon between FL100 to FL150 ahead of a low pressure system approaching the Pacific Northwest. This system will continue to move east and bring unsettled weather to the region over the weekend, including breezy winds, rain and mountain snow showers, and a chance of thunderstorms. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None. && $$ 96/89/90 |
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