Severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas to middle Tennessee and Kentucky this afternoon into tonight. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. Heavy to excessive rainfall may produce areas of flooding today and tonight from central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley.
The staff at WFO Morristown, Tennessee is actively working to improve the forecast, services, messaging, and operations across the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians. This page illustrates some of the studies done and offers a glance into some of the research that we are incorporating into our operations. The research may be carried out internally (e.g. local studies, technical memos) or in conjunction with external agencies such as universities, research laboratories, or other government offices. Please contact the SOO regarding research relevant to Southern Appalachian weather or possible collaboration. The research coordinator is David Hotz, Science and Operations Officer (SOO).
| Published Articles | Conference Presentations/Posters | On-Line Articles | Historical Events |
, Fong Ngan, Christopher P. Loughner, Sonny Zinn, Mark Cohen, Temple R. Lee, Edward Dumas, Travis J. Schuyler, C. Bruce Baker, Joseph Maloney, David Hotz, and George Mathews, J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-22-0182.1.
, Anderson, M.A., Schneider, D.G, Buckles, J.L., Bodine, D.J., Reinhart, A.E., Satrio, M.A., Maruyama, T., J. Operational Meteor., 10 (2), 18-29, doi: https://doi.org/10.15191/nwajom.2022.1002.
, Pinto, J. O., Jensen, A. A., Steiner, M., O’Sullivan, D., Taylor, S., Elston, J., Baker, C. B., Hotz, D., Marshall, C., Jacob, J., Bärfuss, K., Piguet, B., Roberts, G., Omanovic, N., Fengler, M., & Houston, A. (2021). T, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (published online ahead of print 2021). Retrieved Sep 5, 2021
by *,a, b, b, and , AMS Weather and Forecasting, March 2018.
by , , , , , , and . Preprints, AMS Weather and Forecasting, February 2016, Vol. 31, No. 1.
The Influence of Terrain during the 27 April 2011 Super Tornado Outbreak and 5 July 2012 Derecho around the Great Smoky Mountains National Park.
by David M. Gaffin. Preprints, 26th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Nashville, TN, American Meteorological Society, November 2012.
An Examination of Varying Supercell Environments over the Complex Terrain of the Eastern Tennessee River Valley.
by David M. Gaffin and David G. Hotz. National Weather Digest, National Weather Association, Vol. 35, December 2011.
An Examination of the Areal Extent of High Winds due to Mountain Waves along the Western Foothills of the Southern Appalachian Mountains.
by David M. Gaffin. National Weather Digest, National Weather Association, Vol. 35, August 2011.
by Douglas G. Schneider. Electronic Journal of Operational Meteorology, National Weather Association, 2009-EJ11.
by , , , , , , , , , , , , and . Weather and Forecasting, American Meteorological Society, July 2009, Vol 90, No. 7.
On High Winds and Foehn Warming associated with Mountain-Wave Events in the Western Foothills of the Southern Appalachian Mountains.
by David M. Gaffin. Weather and Forecasting, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 24, February 2009.
WFO Morristown, Tennessee Severe Weather Climatology.
by Sara Presnall and David Hotz. NOAA Technical Attachment, January 2009.
by L. Baker Perry, Charles E. Konrad, David G. Hotz, and Laurence G. Lee. Preprints, 64th Eastern Snow Conf., St. Johns, Newfoundland, Canadian Meteorological Society, May 2007.
by David M. Gaffin. Weather and Forecasting, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 22, February 2007.
North American Mesoscale (NAM) Model -- Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model Ozone Forecast Verification Study for Knoxville, Tennessee (Summer 2005).
by Loren C. Marz. NOAA Technical Memorandum (博体育 SR-227), December 2006.
A Climatology of Synoptic Conditions associated with Significant Tornadoes across the Southern Appalachian Region.
by David M. Gaffin and Stephen S. Parker. Weather and Forecasting, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 21, October 2006.
A Comparison of MEX Guidance vs. Ensemble-based Temperature Forecasts.
by Loren C. Marz. 博体育 Southern Region Technical Attachment (SR/SSD 2004-07), October 2004.
An Unexpectedly Heavy and Complex Snowfall Event across the Southern Appalachian Region.
by David M. Gaffin, Stephen S. Parker, and Paul D. Kirkwood. Weather and Forecasting, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 18, April 2003.
An Evaluation of Temperature Variations around the Great Smoky Mountains National Park and their Associated Synoptic Weather Patterns.
by David M. Gaffin, David G. Hotz, and Terry I. Getz. NOAA Technical Memorandum (博体育 SR-221), October 2002.
Unexpected Warming Induced by Foehn Winds in the Lee of the Smoky Mountains.
by David M. Gaffin. Weather and Forecasting, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 17, August 2002.
A Precipitation and Flood Climatology with Synoptic Features of Heavy Rainfall across the Southern Appalachian Mountains.
by David M. Gaffin and David G. Hotz. National Weather Digest, National Weather Association, Vol. 24, September 2000.
A Precipitation and Flash Flood Climatology of the WFO Morristown, Tennessee Hydrological Service Area.
by David M. Gaffin and David G. Hotz. NOAA Technical Memorandum (博体育 SR-204), February 2000.
Wake Low Severe Wind Events in the Mississippi River Valley: A Case Study of Two Contrasting Events.
by David M. Gaffin. Weather and Forecasting, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 14, October 1999.
Winter Lightning in the Southeast U.S. and its Relation to Heavy Frozen Precipitation.
by Steve Hunter, Jeff Underwood, Ron Holle, and Tom Mote. Preprints, 19th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Minneapolis, MN, American Meteorological Society, September 1998.
博体育O Morristown, Tennessee Severe Weather Climatology.
by David Hotz and Joanne Labounty. NOAA Technical Memorandum (博体育 SR-197), May 1998.
Major Tornado Outbreak in East Tennessee - May 18, 1995.
by Michael Buchanan, Terry Getz, and David Hotz. 博体育 Southern Region Technical Attachment (SR/SSD 96-48), November 1996.
WSR-88D Radar Rainfall Estimation: Capabilities, Limitations and Potential Improvements.
by Steve Hunter. National Weather Digest, National Weather Association, Vol. 20, June 1996.
A Comparison of High/Low Temperature Data for Two Locations in Southeast Tennessee and Southwest North Carolina.
by Hal Austin. 博体育 Southern Region Technical Attachment (SR/SSD 96-14), March 1996.
The Importance of Mentoring: Professionally and Personally, David Hotz, 博体育, Morristown, TN, Southern Appalachian Weather and Climate Workshop 2024.
The 2023 Virginia Tech Hokie Storm Chase: From a Professional's Point of View, Kerrie Simmons, 博体育, Morristown, TN, Southern Appalachian Weather and Climate Workshop 2024.
Structure and Impact of a National SOO/DOH Mentoring Program, David Hotz, 博体育, Morristown, TN, National Weather Conference 2023
博体育 Careers in Operational Forecasting, Brandon Wasilewski, 博体育, Morristown, TN, Southern Appalachian Weather and Climate Workshop 2023.
Terrain Enhanced Tornadogenesis and the Importance of Satellite Imagery in Rural Storm Surveys, Jeremy Buckles, 博体育 Morristown, TN, Southern Appalachian Weather and Climate Workshop 2023.
A Visual and Searchable Tornado Database, Anthony Cavallucci, 博体育 Morristown, TN, Southern Appalachian Weather and Climate Workshop 2023.
Analysis of Flooded Locations & Simulated Hydrographs, Charles Dalton, 博体育 Morristown TN, Southern Appalachian Weather and Climate Workshop 2023.
Improving Decision Support Services using Small Uncrewed Aircraft Systems Data in HYSPLIT Modeling, David Hotz, 博体育 Morristown TN, Southern Appalachian Weather and Climate Workshop 2023.
Redefining Case Simulation Training at 博体育 Morristown Tennessee, David Hotz, 博体育, Morristown, TN, National Weather Conference 2022
Weather Resilient Tennessee, Anthony Cavallucci, 博体育, Morristown, TN, Southern Appalachian Weather and Climate Workshop 2022.
Classification of Mountain Wave Events across the Southern Appalachian, Jeremy Buckles, 博体育, Morristown, TN, Southern Appalachian Weather and Climate Workshop 2022.
Impact of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Arctic Oscillation (AO), Pacific/North American Pattern (PNA), and North Atlantic Oscillation on Weather Patterns in the 博体育 Morristown TN Warning Forecast Area, Brandon Wasilewski, 博体育 Morristown, TN, Southern Appalachian Weather and Climate Workshop 2022.
Mesoscale Environment Factors During the Camp Creek, Tennessee EF3 Tornado Event of April 27th 2011, David Hotz, 博体育 Morristown, TN, Southern Appalachian Weather and Climate Workshop 2022
, Allan Diegan, 博体育, Morristown, TN, National Weather Association Conference 2021
, Richard Garuckas, 博体育, Morristown, TN, National Weather Association Conference 2021
, David Hotz, 博体育, Morristown, TN, National Weather Conference 2021
, Richard Allan Diegan III, 博体育, Morristown, TN, American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting 2021
, Richard Vincent Garuckas III, 博体育FO, Morristown, TN; and C. D. Gant, R.A. Diegan III, J. Buckles, and B. Wasilewski, American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting 2021
, Andrew Moulton, 博体育, Morristown, TN, American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting 2021
, Charles D. Gant, 博体育FO, Morristown, TN; and P. Camp, 博体育FO, Tallahassee, FL, American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting 2021
Radar and Mesoscale Analysis of Tornado Warnings Across East Tennessee in 2019, NOAA/博体育 Richard Garuckas, Jeremy Buckles, Allan Diegan, Doug Schneider, and David Hotz, National Weather Association Conference, 2020
Mentoring, Employee-to-Employee Facilitation, and Employee Evaluation or New 博体育 Meteorologists, NOAA/博体育 David Hotz, Morristown TN and NOAA/博体育 , Christina Crowe, National Weather Association Conference, 2020
Research, Preserve, and Protect the Last Remaining U.S. Weather Bureau Kiosk in the Nation, Andrew Moulton, NOAA/博体育, Morristown, TN, National Weather Association Conference, 2020
Hurricane Dorian & Beyond: How GIS Mutual Aid and Cloudbased GIS improve IDSS for Core Partners Charles D. Gant, 博体育FO, Morristown, TN; Derek Giardino, WGRFC; and Jared Allen, 博体育FO, Cheyenne, WY, National Weather Association Conference, 2020
, David Hotz, Morristown, TN; and A. Anderson, J. W. Dellicarpini, C. Entremont, S. J. Keighton, P. T. Marsh, J. S. Schaumann, M. sutton, T. J. Turnage, and J. R. Wiedenfeld, American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting 2021
Classification of Mountain Wave Events across the southern Appalachians, Matthew Anderson, NOAA/博体育/WFO-Morristown, TN, National Weather Association Conference, 2019
Terrain Effects on the Mountainburg, AR EF-2 Tornado: April 13, 2018, Matthew Anderson, NOAA/博体育/WFO-Morristown, TN, National Weather Association Conference, 2019
Terrain Effects on Frontogenesis and Snowfall Across the Southern Appalachians, Richard Diegan, NOAA/博体育, Morristown, TN, National Weather Association Conference, 2019
East Tennessee Flash Flood Event of 6th February 2019, Richard Garuckas, NOAA 博体育, Morristown, TN, National Weather Association Conference, 2019
An Alternative Approach to Operational Flash Flood Forecasting Using HydroViewer Advanced, Charles Gant, NOAA/博体育 WFO Morristown Tennessee, National Weather Association Conference, 2019
A GIS Approach to Modeling Orographic Ascent across the Southern Appalachian Mountains, Specifically in Northwest Flow Snowfall Regimes, Charles Gant 博体育FO, Morristown, TN, Mississippi State Capstone Research, 2019
Situational Awareness Forecast Advisor Tool, David Hotz, 博体育, Morristown, TN, , National Weather Association Conference, 2018
, Matthew E. Anderson, NOAA/博体育, Morristown, TN; and A. Pritchett, American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting 2018.
, Jeremy L. Buckles, NOAA/博体育, Morristown, TN; and E. M. Hagner and D. G. Hotz, American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting 2018
, David G. Hotz, NOAA/博体育, Morristown, TN; and A. R. Anderson, J. W. Dellicarpini, C. Entremont, S. J. Keighton, P. T. Marsh, J. S. Schaumann, M. sutton, T. J. Turnage, and J. R. Wiedenfeld, American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting 2018
, Jeremy Buckles, NOAA/博体育/Forecast Office, Morristown, TN, Elyse Hagner, NOAA/博体育/Forecast Office, David Hotz, NOAA/博体育/Forecast Office, National Weather Association Conference, 2017
, Robert, Sam Roberts II, NOAA, Morristown, TN; and A. Pritchett, American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting 2017
, David G. Hotz, NOAA/博体育, Morristown, TN; and A. Cavallucci, G. T. Stano, and T. Reavley, American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting 2017
Investigation of Atmospheric Rivers Impacting the Pigeon River Basin of the Southern Appalachian Mountains, Jessica Winton, 博体育, Morristown, TN; and D. G. Hotz, D. Miller, L. Stewart, A. P. Barros, J. Forsythe, and A. P. Biazar, American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting 2017
Near Storm Environment Awareness Project Purpose and Future Plans, David G. Hotz, NOAA/博体育, Morristown, TN, Jason Schaumann, NOAA/博体育, Springfield, MO, Aaron Anderson, NOAA/博体育, Norman, OK, Mike Sutton and Thomas Turange, NOAA/博体育, Grand Rapids, MI, Stephen Keighton, NOAA/博体育, Blacksburg, VA, Joseph Dellicarpini, NOAA/博体育, Taunton, MA, Patrick Marsh, NOAA/博体育/SPC, Norman, OK, Jerry Wiedenfeld, NOAA/博体育, Milwaukee-Sullivan, WI, National Weather Association Conference, 2016
Near Storm Environment Application, Aaron R. Anderson, NOAA/博体育, Norman, OK, David Hotz, NOAA/博体育 Morristown, TN, Jason Schaumann, NOAA/博体育, Springfield, MO, Mike Sutton and Thomas Turnage, NOAA/博体育, Grand Rapids, MI, National Weather Association Conference, 2016
The Influence of Atmospheric Rivers on Extreme Precipitation Events Observed in the Southern Appalachians Lukas Stewart and Douglas Miller, University of North Carolina Asheville, Asheville, NC, David Hotz, and Jessica Winton, NOAA/博体育, Morristown, TN, National Weather Association Conference, 2016
The Effects of the ENSO Cycle on the Tornado Occurrence in East Tennessee, Jessica Winton, NOAA/博体育, Morristown, TN, National Weather Association Conference, 2016
Mesoscale Environmental Factors During the Camp Creek, Tennessee EF3 Tornado Event of April 27th, 2011, David G Hotz, National Weather Association Conference, 2015
The Incredible Winter Weather in February 2015 across the Eastern Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians, Andrew M Pritchett, National Weather Association Conference, 2015
The Tennessee Valley Historical Tornado Research Project, Tim Troutman, National Weather Association Conference, 2015
The Critical Time Period in Which 博体育 Offices can Gain a Substantial Increase in Facebook Followers and Page Visits, Robert S. Roberts, NOAA/博体育, Morristown, TN, National Weather Association Conference, 2014
Comparing Three Orographic Heavy Rainfall Events across East Tennessee, David G. Hotz, NOAA/博体育, Morristown, TN, National Weather Association Conference, 2014
Northwest Flow Snow Aspects of Sandy. Part III: Moisture Anomalies and Trajectory Analysis, David Hotz, NOAA/博体育, Morristown, TN
L. Baker Perry, Appalachian State University, Boone, NC, Steven Keighton, NOAA/博体育, Blacksburg, VA, National Weather Association Conference, 2013
Use of Total Lightning Data at Chattanooga, Tennessee Emergency Management for Public Safety and Decision Making, David Hotz and Anthony Cavallucci, NOAA/博体育, Morristown, TN, Geoffrey Stano, NASA SPoRT/ENSCO Inc., Huntsville, AL, Tony Reavley, Director of Emergency Service and Homeland Security, Hamilton County Government, Chattanooga, TN, National Weather Association Conference, 2013
The Influence of Gravity Waves and Boundaries on an Unexpected Tornado in East Tennessee, Sam Roberts, NOAA/博体育, Morristown, TN, National Weather Association Conference, 2013
Incorporating Facebook into the Post Storm Assessment of the 27 April 2011 Tennessee Valley Tornado Outbreak. Timothy W. Troutman, NOAA/博体育, Huntsville, AL, Douglas E.Schneider, Sam Roberts and Eric I. Holweg, NOAA/博体育, Morristown, TN, National Weather Association Conference, 2011
Storm Monitor & Analysis Program. David Hotz, NOAA/博体育, Morristown, TN, Jason Schaumann, NOAA/博体育, Springfield, MO and Shawn O'Neill, NOAA/National Weather Service, Morristown, TN, National Weather Association Conference, 2011
博体育/SPC Watch Survey for Broadcasters. Greg Carbin, NOAA/博体育/NCEP/Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK; Richard Okulski (NWA Councilor), NOAA/博体育, Memphis, TN; and George Mathews, NOAA/博体育, Knoxville/Tri-Cities, TN, National Weather Association Conference, 2008
What Are Mountain Waves?
by David Gaffin.
A Dense Fog Study for Knoxville Tennessee.
by Wayne Shaffer.
Killer Flooding in Carter County TN.
by Steve Hunter and Brian Boyd.
Videotaped presentations on the 27 April 2011 Super Tornado Outbreak in east Tennessee and southwest Virginia.
by David Gaffin, David Hotz, Tim Doyle, Tim Troutman, George Mathews, and Howard Waldron. , .
Videotaped presentations on the 2 March 2012 Tornado Outbreak in east Tennessee.
by David Hotz, George Mathews, and Eric Holweg. , .
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